The Millennials: The BEST Generation or Worse Generation Ever? Nice info-graphic showing generational characteristics...

Source: Chartporn

Created by: Online Graduate Programs

Here is an objective view of our persistent Unemployment problem that people don't want to face because it is too difficult to address BUT is the primary problem in the Long Run...

While politicians and partisans of all stripes, literally and figuratively, howl at the moon in terms of blame for our economic woes, I prefer students block that out and look at root causes. 

Below is an excellent commentary on a significant part (I believe) of our labor employment problem in the US.  Much of it is self induced. By that I mean through the collective actions of individuals, government and industry, we have put ourselves "in between a rock and a hard place" because of choice and policy. 

The over-arching theme of the article is we don't have enough skilled workers for the manufacturing we do have in the US, and too many college graduates underemployed because they have degrees in either (1) fields that are ALREADY declining or (2) in subjects that have little "market value". 

Here are some excerpts, but I encourage you to read the whole thing (short and informative).  Instead of joining in political shouting matches that have no end (which is easy to do intellectually), please learn about this important issue and shout instead for solutions to the ACTUAL problems, which is harder to do but is the only way out of our doldrums LONG TERM....

Wanted: Blue-Collar Workers

“There are very few unskilled jobs any more,” says Wright. “You can’t make it any more just pushing a button. These jobs require thinking and ability to act autonomously. But such people are not very thick on the ground.” Among the affected industries will be the auto companies, which lost some 230,000 jobs in the recession. David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, predicts that as the industry tries to hire more than 100,000 workers by 2013, it will start running out of people with the proper skills as early as next year. “The ability to make things in America is at risk,” says Jeannine Kunz, director of professional development for the Society of Manufacturing Engineers in Dearborn, Michigan. If the skilled-labor shortage persists, she fears, “hundreds of thousands of jobs will go unfilled by 2021.”

Some of Gibson’s fellow manufacturers blame the shortage of skilled workers on the decline of vocational education, which has been taking place for two decades now. Such training is unpopular for several reasons. For one thing, many working-class and minority children were once steered into vocational programs even if they had aptitude for other things, an unfair practice that many people haven’t forgotten. Today’s young people, moreover, tend to regard craft work—plumbing, masonry, and carpentry, for instance—as unfashionable and dead-end, no doubt because they’ve been instructed to aspire to college. “People go to college not because they want to but because their parents tell them that’s the thing to do,” says Jeff Kirk, manager of human relations at Kaiser Aluminum’s plant in Heath, Ohio. “Kids need to become aware of the reality that much of what they learn in school is not really needed in the workplace. They don’t realize a pipe fitter makes three times as much as a social worker.”

The reason for the low rewards is that many of the skills learned in college are now in oversupply. A recent study by the economic forecasting firm EMSI found that fewer computer programmers have jobs now than in 2008. Through 2016, EMSI estimates, the number of new graduates in the information field will be three times the number of job openings.""

Source: New Geography

Nice Graphic...Jobs/Careers projected to need the most workers in the next decade...Are YOU on the right path?

What is not debatable is the fact that continued education is needed to make sure you have the necessary skills to be an employable worker in the future.  Do not stagnate and think you have enough knowledge to perform a job.  Always look to the next step within your chosen career field and be ready/prepared to move in any career direction. 

Source: Jared Bernstein

Pop Quiz: "Are there more or fewer Federal Government employees today as compared to 1970?". The answer WILL surprise you...

In my last post, I showed a graph of the trend in government employment since 1970.  That graph showed employment at ALL levels of government---Federal, State and Local.  Got me to thinking...
Has employment at the Federal level increased dramatically, as many would assume? Even if it has in the short run, what has Federal employment been historically?

The graph below shows on the Left scale: the BLUE line (ALL Government employment) and the GOLD line (ONLY Federal employment/employees.  The difference between these two lines will be the number of State and Local government employees. Add 3 zeroes to the numbers you see there, indicating millions of employees.

On the Right scale, the RED line is population growth since 1970. Add 3 zeroes to the number you see there, indicating millions of people.

When you look at the GOLD line, factor out the jumps you see at the beginning of every decade---that is when significant part-time employment increases to do the Constitutionally required census.

Are you surprised that the Federal employment line is virtually flat over 30 years? 

Let's look at the same graph, but now in an index form so we can see percentage-wise how these three measurements have changed relative to each other.



Using 1970 as a base year (Index = 100), we can see that Federal employment is about the same after 40 years! If you take the difference between the RED line and the BLUE line you can see State and Local employment has increased significantly as a proportion of government employment overall.  In other words, there does not appear to be a major shift in employment at the Federal level but certainly lots of growth at the State and Local level. 

US population has increased approx 53%, Federal employment has remained about the same, and State and Local government employment has increased approx 77%. 

The sheer number of Federal "bureaucrats" has not varied much over time.  However, this says nothing about the power of EACH (on average) of those Federal employees. 

I think people mix up the two---IF in peoples minds the Federal govt has become more powerful it is because of reasons OTHER than the sheer number of employees wielding influence. 

Which President in the last 40 years can claim the title of "Small Government" President, in terms of the Federal Workforce? Better look at this before you answer...

Can you identify the US President(s) since 1970 who have decreased the Federal Workforce significantly during their time in office?...Regardless of your political affiliation, are you feeling a little conflicted right now?? Kinda looks like there is only ONE "small government" President, doesn't it??

Snapshot of where jobs were gained and lost in the lastest Employment Report...Read it and weep...

Here are the major categories of industries and the change in jobs in each of those industries.  Under "Nov 2011" are the number of jobs created (or if a negatice, jobs lost)  in those industries in the month of November (add 3 zeroes to the number you see to get the correct number in thousands).  It also shows a comparison to Oct and Sept 2011 AND compares to a year ago (Nov 2010). 

The biggest number to jump out is "Retail Trade"---a net increase of 49,000 jobs.  This would in large part be seasonal hiring for the holidays. One would have to assume most of these jobs will go away in a month.  This will show up in the January report, which would come out in Feb 2012.

Read it and weep...

Source: BLS.gov

US becomes a Net Exporter of Petroleum products for the first time in 62 years!! Is this a good thing? Nice new graphic showing the cause...

This caught me by surprise. The US, for the first time in 62 years, has become a net EXPORTER of petroleum and petroleum based products.  Gasoline and diesel fuels (for cars and trucks) lead the way.
 
The following graph may help explain some of the reason.  It shows a leveling-off of gasoline supplied in the US starting in about 2005 and then declined in 2007-08 (recession started).

Source: EIA

However, this does not mean that  the production of gasoline has decreased.  While demand is soft in the US, many other economys in the world are growing and have an increased demand for gasoline.  This graph shows the production of gasoline. 

Notice how production varies in the short term, but if I am reading the trend line correctly, it has increased in the past year.  Use your imagination and put these three graphics together---A declining supply of gasoline in the US market, an increasing supply of gasoline produced in the US = export of the difference---its gotta go somewhere...

From the WSJ:

""U.S. customers have been pulling back in part because an anemic economic recovery has left millions still looking for work. In August, U.S. drivers burned 7.7% less gasoline than four years earlier, when gasoline usage peaked...

But U.S. drivers aren't seeing much benefit in the form of lower prices because refineries on the Gulf Coast are shipping much of their output to places where demand is strong, keeping prices high....

Mexico and Brazil were major consumers of U.S. exports, according to the September data, while the Netherlands—home to key European ports —and Singapore also were significant net importers.

Argentina and Peru are now net importers from the U.S. For the next year or two, "the economies in Latin America will be growing faster than in the U.S. and the trend of increasing exports should continue," says Daniel Vizel, U.S. head of oil trading for Macquarie Group Ltd.

Singapore's net imports from the U.S. roughly quadrupled in the past five years, while Mexico's rose by about two-thirds. Mexico, in particular, is having trouble keeping pace with gasoline demand and buys about 60% of gasoline exports from the U.S...;""

"Green Energy is People!!"**

I did not make this up, but wish I did. To get it, you will have to be familiar with the theme of the movie "Soylent Green"...

Crematorium May Generate Electricity

""A CREMATORIUM wants to install turbines in two of its burners to generate electricity.

The burners at Durham Crematorium would use the heat generated during the cremation process to provide the same amount of electricity as would power 1,500 TVs.

A third burner is to be used to provide heating for the site's chapel and its offices.

The scheme would be the first of its kind in the UK but industry experts say that it could be followed by other similar projects.

Many crematoria are currently replacing their furnaces, to meet government targets on preventing mercury emissions from escaping into the atmosphere.

The substance accumulates in the air and water and is harmful to the brain, kidneys, nervous system and unborn children. It also has an impact on the food chain, particularly when it is deposited in water and ingested by fish.

Crematoria are required to halve such emissions by next year and eliminate them altogether by the end of the decade.

Some have already fitted systems which use the heat from the burners to provide heating for their buildings, nearby offices and, in one case, a swimming pool. ""

Those of you in college struggling with finals preparation, here is some motivation for you (see Chart)---Education PAYS in terms of earning potential and likely-hood of being unemployed...

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Want to know how close (or far) you are from being a "1%-er" in terms of income? You may be closer then you think. Enter your income and press the button...EASY!

Want to know where YOU fit in as far as percentile of income relative to everyone else? Below is an example.  If your yearly income is (based on tax return filings) $10,000 then you are in the 11th percentile---89% of other income earners earn more than you do. Go HERE to enter your income and see where you rank...

Source: Wall Street Journal

Two nice graphics showing energy consumption by source. We are failing...

Reality Check.  As much as I would like the us to move to a cleaner and less political (by political I mean we dont have to go to war or maintain a military presence to get it) source of energy, this is the real world.

The first graphic shows the sources of fuel for electricity. The second one shows what we need for everyting else. Look how Oil "pops" from the first to the second. Oil is not only used for electricity production but also gasoline and it is an input into the production of many goods, like plastic.

With all the subsidies and other support we (and other rich countries) have put into alternative sources of energy, the dial on those has barely budged.  I  don't think I would even count the category "bio-mass". I am sure this includes the disasterous Ethanol policy.  Using food or even other organic matter for fuel has to be considered a no-go to meet our massive energy needs. 

Source: Wattsupwiththat

Source: Wattsupwiththat

Science Friction: Read this "Tariff-ic" posting on the issue of "Tomato Paste/Sauce as a Veggie--Congressional Edition". Read, Cuss and Discuss...

The hottest debate in Congress these days is how much tomato paste (derived from a fruit) is required on a slice of pizza to classify said tomato paste as a vegetable (which is NOT a fruit).  Ha! And you thought it was the Super-Committees failure to arrive at a budget solution.

We have all heard the timeless debate as to whether tomatoes are a fruit or vegetable.  I think the botanical science is clear that it is a fruit, but in the public square it ain't a fruit, because, well, you don't pluck it off a vine or tree and eat it directly.  If you do, you just trying to be a hippie rebel...Simple as that...

I always look for an economics-related reason for the way things are and this debate did not disappoint me.  A quick search on Wikipedia brought me this unexpected gem:

""...In 1887, U.S. tariff laws that imposed a duty on vegetables, but not on fruits, caused the tomato's status to become a matter of legal importance. The U.S. Supreme Court settled the controversy on May 10, 1893, by declaring that the tomato is a vegetable, based on the popular definition that classifies vegetables by use, that they are generally served with dinner and not dessert (Nix v. Hedden (149 U.S. 304)).^[51] The holding of the case applies only to the interpretation of the Tariff Act of March 3, 1883, and the court did not purport to reclassify the tomato for botanical or other purposes...."

So, the Supreme Court added to the blurring of the lines of science by using the popular notion of the tomato-as-a-vegetable in a ruling on a tarrif case. 

Looking a little deeper, I found a short history of the tomato in the US (not indigenous to the US, by the way, AND Thomas Jefferson had a huge influence in promoting it) HERE and the origin of the reason the Supreme Court took this case on in the first place.

""...tomatoes became very popular in the US. By the 1880’s, demand far outpaced US production, and tomato imports steadily increased. Ketchup and tomato soup (new foods to America) were becoming popular. Tomato sales soared.

In the Tariff Act of 1883, Congress dramatically increased taxes on imported vegetables. President Chester Arthur supported these taxes to protect American business from foreign competition. However, due to special interest lobbyists, fruit was not taxed at all.

A tomato importer named John Nix classified his tomatoes as “fruit”, the appropriate botanical classification, to avoid the tax. The government insisted on collecting the tax anyway. Nix sued. The case went all the way to the Supreme Court.


Believe it or not, the Court ruled that even though the tomato is in fact a fruit, for purposes of the tax it should be considered a vegetable! Goodbye love apple, hello tomato tax.


That Supreme Court ruling is the reason we call the tomato a vegetable. It is the law of the land!...""

There you have it...Political interests over-riding simple science in the 1880's and 2011.  The more things change, the more they stay the same....

Lesson in Productivity...More food with fewer workers...Should we be OUTRAGED that employment in agriculture has declined so much??

Productivity (Output per worker) down on the farm is amazing.  The first graph shows the yield per acre of various agricultural commodities relative to the growth of the US population.  Food production per capita has increased dramatically post-Depression Era. 

Source: Coyote Blog

This second graph shows productivity in agriculture has been achieved with fewer workers. Notice in both graphs 1930 to 1940 was a seminal year---a dramtic divergence in the production of food and the number of workers needed to produce that food.

Source: NASS

Why is this?...

Source: HERE: ""The use of technology in modern agriculture began with the replacement of the horse with modern tractors, combines, and cotton pickers after the turn of the 20th

century. The nextrevolution in crop production began in the 1930s with “hybridization” of crops, or the breeding of

select crops to produce desirable characteristics not typically found in the original crop. As a

result, crop yields have increased from 25 bushels per acre in 1930 to more than 140 bushels

today. During the 1940s came increased availability of fertilizers to further increase crop yields,

and in the 1950s we saw the introduction of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides to help

control weeds, insects and diseases that can reduce crop growth. In the mid 1990s, the

introduction of food biotechnology helped to increase the quantity and quality of the foods we

grow by making them tolerant of pesticides and preserving nutrients and other desirable traits. As

with other industries, farmers have had much to gain from the availability of computers, software,

satellites, and the Internet. Such technologies enable farmers to practice what is often referred to

as “precision agriculture,” which gives them the ability to more effectively use crop inputs such

as fertilizers, pesticides, tilled or cultivated land, and irrigation water. More effective use of these

inputs means greater crop yield and/or quality, without polluting the environment. Additionally,

since 1930, the time necessary to produce a bushel of corn has decreased from more than 30

minutes to a fraction of a minute in 2002."""


Nice chart showing the difference in gasoline prices between the US and Europe...Why the big difference???

Here is a chart showing the differences in the price of gasoline between the US and Europe at-large.  Why is there such a large disparity between the two continents?

Source: Business Insider

Much of the difference comes from the level of taxation on gasoline. Here are a few examples of countries shown above and the dollar amount in taxes levied on a gallon of gasoline.

Belgium $4.26

France $4.12

Germany $4.37

Italy $3.95

Japan $2.81

Netherlands $4.79

United Kingdom $4.47

United States $.39