While the graphic below is physically hard to read (it seems they could have made the differences a little more stark), the lesson it teaches is clear: Demographics are and will be, for a long time, a large driver of the Federal Budget (Social Security/Medicare, etc.)
I turned 65 this year, so you can see I am at the forefront of the "gray tsunami" that will continue to build and crest over the next 30 years. This will have a continued impact on the Federal Budget and social policy for at least another generation.
From The Congressional Budget Office, "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055"
The share of the population age 65 or older is projected to increase over the coming decades, continuing a long-standing trend (see Figure 3-2). From 2015 to 2024, that share rose from 14.4 percent to 17.9 percent, driven mainly by the aging of members of the large baby boom generation that was born between 1946 and 1964. The percentage of the population age 65 or older continues to increase in CBO’s projections, rising from 18.3 percent in 2025 to 21.2 percent in 2035 and 23.4 percent in 2055.
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