Friday, February 28, 2014

Nice graph showing the saviors of the US economy are those of you in High School and College right now. We just have to wait for you to get into your 30's!!

Saw this graph at Motley Fools and felt more hopeful about our economic future. The age group 30-44 is an important one because it represents the heart of the working age population on the supply side AND the driver of consumption on the demand side (housing, cars, kids and all that entails in needing goods and services).

In 2010 we reached a low point in that age group in the US.  Just eyeballing it, there were about 5 million FEWER people 30 to 44 than in the late 90's and early 2000's.  Between that time and 2010 observe the large drop off in this age group.  BUT you see a recovery to a possible new peak in 2025 at about 69 million.

Is this dearth of 30 to 44 years old's the (or a) reason we plodding along economically? Surely cannot help, right?

Human capital is important for economic growth.  Is the stock of it we are building now (that is YOU high school and college students!) going to be the REAL bailout our stagnant economy needs.

I like the story this graph contributes to the debate.  As I said...hope.

Here are some important points made in the article HERE:
That's important for economic growth, because we know a few things about Americans aged 30 to 44. 
For one, they start a lot of businesses. According to the Kaufman Foundation, the median age of a company founder when beginning his or her current business is 40. This should make sense -- old enough to be experienced; young enough to be ambitious. And it bodes well for jobs growth. Despite what you might hear, most jobs growth doesn't come from small businesses, per se. Instead, new businesses are the key driver to new jobs. A separate study by the Kaufman Foundation found that from 1980 to 2005, "nearly all net job creation in the United States occurred in firms less than five years old." 
The group of 30- to 44-year-olds also buys a lot of homes. The median age of a homebuyer is 39, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median age of a first-time buyer -- the group expanding homeownership rather than merely shuffling it around -- is 30. This will create more natural demand for housing over the next decade than there was in the last one. Still trying to recover from the housing bust, new-home construction is already far below average. It will need to rebound sharply just to keep up with normal population growth. Add in this demographic tailwind, and it could be a remarkable decade for the housing industry. 
The group also buys a lot of cars. A decade ago, 28% of new-car purchases were by those aged 35 to 44 -- the highest of any age group, and more than the cohort's 22% share of the overall population. The recession pushed the average age of a new car buyer from 48 in 2007 to 51, according to industry analysis group Polk. But the 30-to-44 cohort may take the reins again, because their average income has rebounded from the recession faster than any other group in the working-age population. Factor in used-car sales, and those aged 35 to 44 on average spend more for vehicles than any other age group. Investors bullish on the U.S. auto industry tend to cite an aging fleet of vehicles that needs to be replaced. But there's another boost many are ignoring: growing ranks of prime-age car buyers. 
Go down the Census Bureau's list of spending by age group, and our rising cohort leads in several categories. Per person, they spend the most on food. The most on housing services. The most on furniture, apparel, footwear, and entertainment. In many ways they are the driver of U.S. economic growth. And they're about to begin growing again for the first time in a decade.

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