Where's Waldo? Likely calling a moving company to book a move to China...Need more evidence that it is in your interest to know more about China? See this graphic, graphic...

We can choose to view China as a problem or as an opportunity. The Genie IS out of the bottle and my advice for young people is to seriously look at what you can to do to prepare yourself for a future with a more prosperous China. Can't ignore hundreds of millions of potential new customers for US goods and/or services.

Below is a graphic from moving company data on international corporate moves. If you are in college, or are about to be, then consider mixing in a little instruction in Mandarin.  Spend a semester there.  Regardless of your major, whether it is medical, technical, business, marketing, etc, it will only enhance your marketability.   



Source: WSJ


Movers Pick Up China Business

""The rising numbers of U.S. workers and students moving to China are a bright spot for moving companies like St. Louis-based UniGroup Worldwide, which has seen domestic business decline.

The closely held company, an affiliate of Mayflower Transit and United Van Lines, handles moves for corporate clients that pay to relocate employees. Between 2008 and 2010, the number of moves from the U.S. to China it handled grew nearly 47% to 396. Meanwhile, United Van Lines saw interstate moves in the continental U.S. decline 26% to 146,837 in the same time period.


China was the third-most common international destination for UniGroup, behind the United Kingdom and Germany, according to the company, which handled more than 15,000 moves last year.

In part to handle the growth in Asia, since 2007, UniGroup has purchased offices in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, among other locations, said president Brian Iles.

Ernst & Young, which has about 9,000 employees in China, has hired more than 1,500 in the last year and plans to hire another 2,000 by next July, said Bin Wolfe, people leader for the company's Asia-Pacific region. Although most of those employees will be native Chinese, Ms. Wolfe said in the last couple years, more employees from the U.S. have sought to get experience in emerging markets such as China.

Chinese students studying in the U.S. are also increasingly moving back to their native country upon graduation, she said.

"There is a lot of competition out there. People with strong experiences and bilingual skills are in high demand," she said.""

Oil and Bio-Fuels clash...The winner? Better question--The loser? Answer--all of us.

Bad energy policies equal bad outcomes...Two reminders in as to why we need to wean ourselves off of oil AND why using food-for-fuel is NOT the way to do so. You are just subsituting one set of bad trade-offs for another. Can we do better than this?...By the way, I am NOT a hardcore "Greenie"  at all.  I just believe in utilizing resources in the most efficient manner. While oil may have served us very well in the past to get us to an unprecedented level of standard of living, I think diminishing returns are setting in with it and we need to move on to develop a new fundemental source of energy production.  Are we there yet? No...Are we working hard enough to get there? I don't really know, but I believe we should be moving a little quicker to do so. Howver, in my humble opinion, bio-fuels are not the way to go.  Where am I going wrong???
Yellowstone river suffers oil spill

""An Exxon Mobil pipeline that runs under the Yellowstone river in Montana ruptured on Saturday, leaking hundreds of barrels of oil and causing a 25-mile (40km) plume that has fouled the riverbank.

The breach in south-central Montana led to the temporary evacuation of hundreds of residents along a 20-mile stretch of the river, a key tourist attraction in the region that runs through the famous national park of the same name. Cleanup crews deployed booms and absorbent material as the plume moved downstream at around 7mph (10km/h):""....Read more HERE

Biofuels land grab in Kenya's Tana Delta fuels talk of war

""The eviction of the villagers to make way for a sugar cane plantation is part of a wider land grab going on in Kenya's Tana Delta that is not only pushing people off plots they have farmed for generations, stealing their water resources and raising tribal tensions that many fear will escalate into war, but also destroying a unique wetland habitat that is home to hundreds of rare and spectacular birds.

The irony is that most of the land is being taken for allegedly environmental reasons – to allow private companies to grow water-thirsty sugar cane and jatropha for the biofuels so much in demand in the west, where green legislation, designed to ease carbon dioxide emissions, is requiring they are mixed with petrol and diesel.""...Read more HERE

Colleges are accepting more out-of-state students for admissions for the extra money. Does this mean the admittance of FEWER in-state students? There HAS to be some impact "at the margin", right? See interesting statistics here...

Interesting college admissions numbers from California. The acceptance of out-of-state (Foreign students included in this statistic too) has increased dramatically just in one year. As high as a 100% increase and some schools. With budget cuts, they are aggressively accepting more out of states students than they may have otherwise.  The obvious reason is out of state students pay a much higher tuition rate BUT do not cost anymore than an in-state student.  A negative---Does this potentially "crowed out" the admissions of in-state students seeking admittance to a California college/university?  A positive---does this allow the university system to keep tuition rates lower for California residents than they otherwise would be, even at the expense of admitting fewer in-state students?

Source: Matthew Yglesias

HT: Mattew Yglesias

Creating "Solar Entrepreneurs" in rural areas in developing countries...Solve a local problem that has global implications AND give someone an entreprenuerial opportunity...Does it get any better than that?

I love the concept of Social Enterprise--Equipping people in developing countries with the training,tools and capital to SELL (not give away) a product and/or service that solves a local problem. Solve a problem, fill a need (or want) and create a job--free enterprise at its finest.  Here is one I just stumbled upon. Selling easy to use solar power technology in rural Africa through a network of "Solar Entrepreneurs".  The focus in on training and equipping women to sell to women in remote villages. If you are young, ambitious and want to help people to help themselves, than working for or establishing your own social enterprise of some sort may be for you. I urge you to check this one out.

Solar Sister wants to light up rural Africa: Rugged, intuitive to use, affordable solar lamps that women can sell door-to-door change lives.

""Solar Sister eradicates energy poverty by empowering women with economic opportunity. We combine the breakthrough potential of solar technology with a deliberately woman-centered direct sales network to bring light, hope and opportunity to even the most remote communities in rural Africa (see flow chart below)

Investing in women is not only the right thing to do, it is the smart thing to do. Solar Sister creates sustainable businesses, powered by smart investment in women entrepreneurs. When you invest in a woman, you invest in the future. Join us by making an investment in a Solar Sister Entrepreneur today.""....Read more HERE at SolarSister.org...

As you head off to college, here is some practical advice from a college professor who is also a student advisor...Pretty good stuff to make you think...

For those of you on your way to college and trying to figure out what classes to take, or wanting to maximize your time/experience at college this Yale professor has some practical advice that I think is important to consider. Some in education are not going to agree with a lot of it, but the advice is not for them, but for you.
He also has other links for other perspectives HERE and HERE

From Chris Blattman...

1.Acquire skills that are hard to get outside school. Your first temptation will be to fill your schedule with courses on fascinating subjects. Do this, but don’t forget to also use university to tech up. For anyone interested in public policy or development, I suggest at two semesters of statistics and economics. Then pick a field of study in development (economics, politics, etc) and pick the hardest courses in each. Other technical skills may come in handy, depending on your interests: international law, political theory, tropical medicine, qualitative methods, finance & accounting, and so forth.


2.Learn how to write well. Take writing seriously. Consider a course in creative, non-fiction, journalism, or business writing. Read books on writing. You won’t regret it.

3.Focus on the teacher, not the topic. You will learn more from great teachers than great syllabi.

4.When in doubt, choose the path that keeps the most doors open. If you aren’t sure of your interests, stick to mainstream majors, ones with plenty of job and grad school options at the end, and get your core stats and math training (multivariate calculus, linear algebra, and multivariate regression).

5.Do the minimum language and management classes. Languages are hugely valuable, but better learned in immersion, during your summers and holidays. Maybe take an intro course, but only that. Business and management skills are critical, but classrooms are poor places to get skills other than finance and accounting.

6.Try careers on for size. Don’t wait until you finish law or medical school to discover you hate working in your specialty. Try out different careers in the summer–researcher, journalist, medical assistant, NGO worker, congressional aide, and so on.

7.Go to strange places. Use a summer or a school year to live abroad, ideally a place completely different from home, where you’ll come to know local people (and not just the expat community). A 10-week sojourn across Western Europe is a blast, but see if you can bunker down for longer in a less familiar locale. Here’s when it makes sense to learn languages.

8.Take some small classes with professors who can write recommendations. If you’re uninterested in grad school, skip to #9. But if a MA or PhD is an option, you will need at least three high quality recommendations. (See my recommendation letter advice here.)

9.If you don’t have to write a thesis, think twice. An independent research project can be the perfect capstone to your college years. Sadly, I often see theses that weren’t worth the students’ investment of time and energy. Some people’s time would be better spent acquiring technical skills (see point 1). I used to advise students against a senior thesis if they had the choice. After getting lots of disagreement on my blog, I’ve revised that view; a senior thesis can be a great investment if you are dedicated to a question of interest, want to learn how to research, want to strengthen a relationship with a professor, want practice for graduate school, or want to try out research and writing as a career option. (If you do plan to write a senior essay, here are my advising requirements.)

10.Blow your mind. At year’s end you should look back at your thoughts and opinions twelve months before and find them quaint. If not, you probably didn’t read or explore or work hard enough. (Come to think of it, this is not a bad rule for life.)

The logic underlying all the above advice: use your undergraduate degree to learn things that are hard to learn anywhere else. Statistics are not more important than languages. But the opportunity cost of skipping a statistics course is high because it’s hard to find alternatives to university classes. Remember you only get 32 courses at university. The opportunity cost of a language program is low because there are a dozen other times and places you can get that skill.

Your paycheck is killing you.. No, really your paycheck IS killing you!...See how here...

When social scientists do research, they try to avoid the "correlation vs. causation" trap. In this particular study (Source: Freakonomics), the basic conclusion is that it is not the actual paycheck that kills you, but the additional activities you engage in after getting paid that increase the risk of something bad happening to you.  My own example: You have little gas a few days before your paycheck--- you drive less. Get paid, and you will drive more in the day(s) after receiving your check, so the probabilities of something bad happening increase.

Why You’re More Likely to Die After Getting Paid

""In a study to be published in an upcoming issue of the Journal of Public Economics, Evans and Moore examined the death records of four demographic groups in the U.S.: seniors on Social Security; military personnel; families receiving tax rebate checks in 2001; and recipients of Alaska’s Permanent Fund dividends. Their results show that mortality increased the week after checks arrived for each of these groups.


Though the effects are strikingly consistent across populations, there are some interesting variations:

•In counties with a large military presence, daily mortality among 17-29 year olds increases by around 10 percent the week after mid-month paychecks arrive.

•The week the 2001 tax rebate checks arrived, mortality among 25-64 year olds increased by 2.5 percent.

•During the week that direct deposits of Permanent Fund dividends are made, mortality among urban Alaskans increases by 13 percent.""

What do they believe is the reason for this outcome?

Q: What about cause of death?


A: For the 17 to 29 population, you see lots of substance abuse and blunt force trauma from auto accidents.

Q: So is it fair to say that when people get paid, they go out and engage in risky behavior? They go party and buy drugs and drive drunk? Is that what’s happening here?

A: There is some of that, but it’s not that extreme for the most part. For a lot of people, you’re just going to the mall to buy something, which increases the risk of all kinds of things: car accidents, heart attacks. It’s not that you’re doing crazy, irresponsible things. It’s not the receipt of income that’s necessarily driving this, it’s the activity generated by the receipt, that’s the killer activity. And that cuts across the entire population.

Q: Did that surprise you, that it was consistent across different types of people?

A: Very much, I think that’s the most important phenomenon with this study, just how broad-based the effect is. The within-month mortality cycle holds for everyone, young and old, rich and poor. It is enhanced for certain demographics. But it’s also very persistent across populations. So, it’s not just poor people or young people, it’s everyone.

It has begun---the new geo-political war for vital natural resources and Russia makes the first move. Move over Polar Bears, the Russian Bear is coming for you!

Russia to deploy 2 army brigades in Arctic

""Russia's defense minister says the military will deploy two army brigades to help protect the nation's interests in the Arctic.

Anatoly Serdyukov says his ministry is working out specifics, such as troops numbers, weapons and bases, but a brigade includes a few thousand soldiers.

Serdyukov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Friday the brigades could be based in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk or other areas.

Russia, the U.S., Canada, Denmark and Norway have been trying to assert jurisdiction over parts of the Arctic, believed to hold up to a quarter of the Earth's undiscovered oil and gas.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia "remains open for dialogue" with its polar neighbors, but will "strongly and persistently" defend its interests in the region.""

Here is an excellent (and short) explanation of area and the reason for the conflict. This WILL be an area of conflict in the very near future!

Humorous Tech Company Organizational Charts---My favorite is Microsoft...

Source: Business Insider

Oil is like sugar---More of it gives you a short term good feeling but eventually you go back to feeling Blah---Yes, there is a lesson here...

Before last weeks announcement that the US would release some of the oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the price of oil was already heading down. See graph below. After a week, the price is almost back up to where it was. Can this be considered a policy success?  The administration could make the case that the price would be even higher if the they had not taken the action. It is hard to say at this point.  Perhaps a good lesson in policy lag---the time difference between policy decision and implementation.  Wonder if gas prices are headed up again...  



Source: WSJ

proaji0fodhi



Number of the Week: U.S. Teachers’ Hours Among World’s Longest.

Source: Wall Street Journal

From WSJ: 1,097: Average number of hours U.S. teachers spend per year on instruction.

Students across the U.S. are enjoying or getting ready for summer vacation, but teachers may be looking forward to the break even more. American teachers are the most productive among major developed countries, according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development data from 2008 — the most recent available.

Among 27 member nations tracked by the OECD, U.S. primary-school educators spent 1,097 hours a year teaching despite only spending 36 weeks a year in the classroom — among the lowest among the countries tracked. That was more than 100 hours more than New Zealand, in second place at 985 hours, despite students in that country going to school for 39 weeks. The OECD average is 786 hours.

And that’s just the time teachers spend on instruction. Including hours teachers spend on work at home and outside the classroom, American primary-school educators spend 1,913 working in a year. According to data from the comparable year in a Labor Department survey, an average full-time employee works 1,932 hours a year spread out over 48 weeks (excluding two weeks vacation and federal holidays).

Since 1985 there are 50% fewer banks in the US making 350% more in loans*...Nothing can go wrong there, right?

The first graph below shows the change in the number of commerical  banks in the US since the mid-1980's.  I was quite surprised by the rapid decline in a relatively short period of time. Roughly a 50% drop. The slope is pretty steep considering it only represents 25 years.  Another interesting thing is that it appears recessions did not hasten the decline, which you might expect as some banks would fail--the decline just slides through the recessions like they never happened (post-2009 migth be the exception).  


Source: The New Arthurian Economics

 This next graph shows the growth in loans in Commericial/Industrial Loans (Business Loans for expansion, Capital Purchases, Accounts Receivables, etc), Real Estate (residential and commercial properties)  Loans and Loans to Consumers (Cars, Credit Cards, Student Loans, etc). Prior to 1985 banks were balanced in there portfolios of loans to these three sectors.  After 1985, there was a dramatic shift towards Real Estate loans.  Starting in the mid to late 1990's the Real Estate loan line (Red) becomes VERY steep and banks portfolios become very unbalanced (numerically and perhaps psychologically, too-- :) ).  


Source: The New Arthurian Economics

  What happened during the period between 1985 and the late 1990's that set in motion (1) the  decline in the number of banks and (2) the rapid increase in the number/value of loans made? Hmm...fewer banks making more loans...nothing bad can happen there, right?? Yes, Art, you can play along too and correct me as needed :)

*rough, ballpark calculation just by eyeballing--- 1985 about $1.7T and in 2011 about $6T..$6T/$1.7T = 3.529 x 100 = 353%

Bastiat's "The Seen and the Unseen" and "The Broken Window Fallacy" explained in a short video. Does it get any better than that?

Please go HERE for the text that accompanies this video. Only read the first part on "The Seen and the Unseen" and "The Broken Window Fallacy".

This is the first assignment I give in AP Economics (Both Macro and Micro). I like to thread the "seen" and "unseen" theme throughout the semeter. I think it underscores the concept of opportunity cost and helps students become better critical thinkers. I also find it is one concept students NEVER seem to forget!

HT: Kids Prefer Cheese

Nice Interactive---Compare the US to any other country in key demographic and "quality of life" measures..

If you go to this site, you can choose any country and compare them to the US (or you can use another country) in terms of a small sample of demographic and "quality of life" metrics.  Seems whenever I come across these type of things, the US always looks like one of the worst places on earth to live. Are these measures the "trees" but people are missing the "forest" that is the US? Still, it is interesting to see what are potential weaknesses are...One can always improve! :)

Source: If It Were My Home...

A nice set of Online Maps from National Geographic...A reminder of how fortunate we are just by virtue of where we are located on the planet...

A nice set of maps with lots of demographic and other information...Reminds me to appreciate my physical location on this planet a lot more. A minority of the population gets to enjoy the majority of the "good life". Go to National Geographic to seem the original maps and more information.

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times"---Which one is it? Nice chart that shows we live in a golden age, although we probably don't realize it...

""I think I work hard. Lots of Americans think they work hard. But when you compare the economic situation of modern America with the rest of the world, or with long-ago history, then (in a phrase commonly attributed to the old football coach Barry Switzer) we're all born standing on third base, congratulating ourselves for hitting a triple."" (HT: The Conversable Economist)

The Industrial Revolution changed everything, it appears.  The dark blue bar is of interest to me. The light blue bar is a complement to the dark blue bar--they go hand in hand, in my opinion.  The entire output (production of goods and services) of the 1st through the 19th centuries does not even come close to the output of the 20th century by itself.  Even more stunning, is the output in a just 10 year old 21st century is already approx 42% of what was produced in the last century.  AND (HT: Carpe Diem) 23% of all production since 1 AD was produced in the period 2001-2010! Free (or freer) people  working within the framework of strong institutions (i.e. Rule of Law) that protect private property rights and individual liberty produce such results. You might say China is an exception.  In the short run, perhaps, but to sustain their economic gains they will (1) have to produce for people the characteristics I mentioned above, or (2) the people will demand them for themselves. 


Source: The Economist