Friday, May 16, 2014

Where's the Beef? No, seriously, where is the beef!!

Here is a look at the past, present and future of the Supply Side of the meat industry. This data is from the USDA ERS for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015. Part of 2014 and all of 2015 are predictions based on known numbers in the herds, flocks, whatever. Numbers are in "millions".

Here are the percentage changes, from 2012 to 2015 in the potential "Quantity Supplied" (in millions of pounds of meat) of meat for consumption:

Beef:  -6.2%
Pork: +4.5%
Lamb/Mutton: -5.8%
Broilers (chickens): +6%
Turkeys: -.7%

Beef production has experienced a steady decline since 2012.  Pork is still below 2012 production levels but expected to rebound in 2015.  Chicken is a bright spot in that it has increased at a fairly steady rate.

While the supplies of chicken and pork will increase, prices will not likely decrease as you might expect.  As the price of beef is most assuredly going to be higher, the demand for chicken and pork as viable substitutes will increase and put upward pressure on the price of  both of those meats.

TANSTAAFL---Now I am hungry for lunch.  Will it be Chicken or Pork Fried Rice?

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