Wednesday, December 12, 2012

States with large outward migration patterns have the most generous State employee pay and benefits. States that have high inbound migration have less generous State employee pay and benefits. Correlation =Causation??

Correlation is not necessarily causation...but is this a coincidence?

Yesterday I posted the first graphic below showing population losses and gains for US States over the last few years.  California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey and large net losers of population. 

The graphic below the map is one I found today.  It shows compensation levels, from highest to lowest, for State employees from the 10 most populated States. 

Notice the list I made above of high outward migration States and the top 5 States in the compensation graphic.  Any similarities?  I think so.  Do they matter? Not sure.

Large States with high inbound migration have lower levels of State employee compensation.

States with high level of State employee pay and benefits are losing tax base. States with lower (relatively speaking) levels of State employee pay and benefits are gaining tax base.

Which States are going to be more fiscally sound and attractive places to live and work?

Correlation is not causation, but is this a coincidence? Or is it a lack of prioritizing between private and public policy goals?  Not sure. I am open to suggestions.

Source: Bloomberg
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