The graphic below speaks volumes and starkly illustrates what I don't think most Americans are aware of, or want to be aware of---there are major emerging economy's with large populations and they are consuming more oil based energy every day.
Speculation in the oil markets happens (see, I said it!). No reasonable person denies that. However, it will not be the long term cause of higher oil prices, hence gas prices. THIS WILL:
Source: WSJ |
But many oil experts believe that scenario won't play out this time, because U.S. drivers are no longer calling the shots. The rapidly industrializing economies of China, India, Brazil and even Saudi Arabia are. A possible result: an extended period of sluggish U.S. growth amid high oil prices.
"It's a new world," said oil economist James D. Hamilton, a professor at the University of California, San Diego. "The growth in newly industrialized countries is the key factor driving oil prices."""
It makes since that when the United States controlled most of the oil demand market that the supply and demand of gas hinged mostly on our actions. For example, when U.S. truck drivers decreased demand of gas the price fell with it. However, now that more and more burgeoning countries are competing for oil the U.S. has far less contol. In fact, I think even if the U.S. decreases the demand, demand from other countries will keep gas prices on the steady decline. I wonder what the elasticities are of the demand curves? I think that, based on the steady increase in need for gas in countries like China, India, and Brazil, the demand with be relatively inelastic as countries are looking to get ahead and that we should prepare from an increased shortage in drillable oil in the future even if prices continue to skyrocket.
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